My Oscar Picks
Posted by SpikeMar 7
I did a more informal version of this a month ago. With the awards just a day away, once again my picks.
Oscars are awarded more often than not due to political reasons and as the result of multi-million dollar industry marketing campaigns. It’s said that many people place their votes based on what they think will make the industry look good versus their actual favorites. At any rate, here’s what I think will win.
Best Picture
Why did they move this from 5 nominees to 10? This year, I’ve seen 8 of the 10 nominated films. Awards given out earlier this year would seem to favor Hurt Locker and I loved that film. But there’s been a bit of a backlash and one producer has been banned from the awards show due to some “mis-behavior.” I don’t think this will go to Avatar; I don’t think Cameron is that well-liked in Hollywood despite making so much money. I think Hurt Locker has a lock on this.
Best Actor
I’ve seen 4 of the 5 nominated performances. Jeff Bridges is well liked in Hollywood and his terrific performances lifts an otherwise run of the mill film into the area of “must see.” If that doesn’t merit an award, nothing does.
Supporting Actor
I’ve seen just 2 of the 5 nominated performances. But it seems that there is no question that this is the year for Christoph Waltz.
Best Actress
I’ve seen just 2 of the 5 nominated performances. I think Meryl Streep really brings Julia Child to life in an otherwise not very remarkable film. And relative newcomer Carey Mulligan holds An Education together. Everyone says that this is the year for Sandra Bullock – and I guess one could say that Hollywood would like to reward her for being a consistent box office draw despite being in one godawful film after another.
Supporting Actress
I’ve seen 3 out of 5 and I didn’t think any of the 3 were strong enough. Everyone says Mo’Nique, I haven’t seen Precious but assuming they’re right on this.
Animated Feature Film
I’ve seen 3 of the 5. Pixar seems to own this category and while I had some problems with parts of Up, I’ve got no problem if it wins.
Art Direction
I’ve seen just two of the five (Avatar and Sherlock Holmes) and I don’t think either of those two will win. Hollywood hates Terry Gilliam and almost anything he touches. Nine won’t win because the Weinsteins are in a downward spiral and Hollywood doesn’t want to see them rescued with even a minor award and will feel they did enough by voting for Christoph Waltz. So Young Victoria is my guess.
Cinematography
One of the categories that is closest to my heart. I’ve seen 4 out of 5. I don’t think Avatar will win because I don’t think DPs see CGI as photography. I think it’s between Hurt Locker and Inglourious and if it’s a Hurt Locker night, it’ll win here too.
Costume Design
I haven’t seen any of these so no guess!
Directing
This is Kathryn Bigelow’s year. The winner of the DGA award almost always takes this home and this year should be no exception.
Documentary Feature
I’ve only seen Food Inc and thought it should have been much better. Something else will win here.
Documentary Short
Haven’t seen any of these.
Film Editing
The pacing and tension in Hurt Locker? Editing.
Foreign Language Film
Haven’t seen any.
Make-Up
Only 3 nominees and I’ve only seen one – Star Trek, which coincidentally is the only American film nominated here. The voters tend to vote American.
Original Score
Everyone loves the soundtrack for Up.
Original Song
2 more nominations for Randy Newman and he won’t win either. The Academy loves T Bone Burnett and his songs are the other strong element in Crazy Heart. While there has been a small kerfuffle over the late Stephen Bruton’s contributions, I think Burnett adds another trophy to his shelf.
Short Film (Animated)
Short Film (Live Action)
Haven’t seen any!
Sound Editing
Again, if everything is swinging Hurt Locker’s way, it could take this one. Everyone else is picking Avatar and they could be right but I like Hurt Locker here too.
Sound Mixing
Avatar should have a lock on this one.
Visual Effects
Well, there’s Avatar and then there’s everything else. Even people who hated the film admire the technical achievements.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
I’ve seen 4 of the 5. The WGA liked Up in the Air and so do I.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
I’ve seen 4 of the 5. I think A Serious Man is brilliant but I seem to be in a minority here – no worries, over time this will be seen as a classic. Right now, people like Inglourious Basterds here and that will probably be the winner.
So there you have it. By lunchtime Monday we’ll know how close I came or how many miles I missed by.
7 comments
Comment by Jeff on March 7, 2010 at 5:15 am
Foreign film will go for the Israeli film – Ajami. I agree that the best picture will not go to Avatar but for different reasons. Read here why – http://www.tomedes.com/2010-Oscar-winner.php
Comment by Spike on March 7, 2010 at 5:42 am
Crouching Tiger didn’t win because it was in a foreign language. It didn’t win because it wasn’t a film produced by Americans. Gladiator was a huge box office hit from a major studio reminiscent of films from the 50s (Academy voters are mostly older). More than that, the Academy is an American trade industry association created to promote American films around the world. They only vote non-American produced films for best picture (including British) in rare instances, usually when an American distributor has been able to do well with it at the American box office. Critics’ opinions mean zero in terms of the Oscars and is a specious argument. Forrest Gump beat Pulp Fiction. Ordinary People beat Raging Bull.
I feel confident in saying that no one who votes for the Oscars will not vote for Avatar because Cameron made up a language (not to mention the fact that the dialogue in that language makes up only a small portion of the film – one that might have been improved if more of the dialogue was impossible to understand).
I understand that this may be viewed as a good marketing hook for the web site but I think it’s reaching a bit too far.
Comment by Mister Bijou on March 7, 2010 at 7:46 am
Seen all the foreign films except the Israeli one, Ajami. The other films chosen make for a very strong list: The Milk of Sorrow (La Teta Asustada), A Prophet (Un Prophète), The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos), The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band). I’d like to see The Secret win, but I think it’s going to be either Prophet or White Ribbon. White Ribbon is austere and measured, the kind of film which can be watched more than once. Whereas Prophet is flashy and fast enough for American tastes. So it’s Prophet for best foreign language film.
Comment by E@L on March 7, 2010 at 9:33 am
‘Precious’ is awesome. Emotionally devastating. It scooped the Spirit Awards Friday night – Film, Director, First Screenplay, Lead and Supporting Actress. Could it be the dark horse (no pun intended) for the Oscars?
Mo’nique as the lazy abusive mother is the most terrifyingly hateful person I can remember seeing on screen. If there was a Special Academy Award for biggest bitch of all time, drop a TV on me and my baby if she’s not a romp in. Gabby Sidibe is immense in a good way – talent. Almost everyone is terrific. Mariah Carey as the social worker is excellent. Even Lenny Kravitz as the male nurse does a passable job…
My only complaint – the title of the novel comes from certain scenes in the story that were not in the screenplay. Maybe they thought they would be too corny in a film, but they certainly worked in the novel to tie it all together. Push!
Comment by THE KMB on March 8, 2010 at 12:05 am
I haven’t seen HURTLOCKER yet – but I am sure will be the best movie – this is the way of digest the American’s bad feelings about this war……………
Comment by Skippy-san on March 8, 2010 at 12:30 pm
The animation category shows that all they really care about is CGI. Ponyo was not nominated and Miyazaki’s worth outclasses all of the other nominees ( and it is 100% hand drawn).
Comment by Steve on March 8, 2010 at 8:51 pm
A film recommendation – OSS:117 Cairo Nest of Spies. A French spoof that is part Austin Powers, part David Brent set in the 60s. They are plenty of non-PC moments that made me smile particularly the lack of curiosity and the incredible conceit of the French spy. Although it is satire I expect it is a good reflection of the thinking then.