All may be happy in my life these days, but the future of Hong Kong is not looking so good. In case you’ve missed coverage elsewhere, the NY Times has an update. Excerpts:

Chinese officials announced Saturday that Hong Kong would have to wait at least another decade for democratic elections to select its leader, and for more than 12 years to have the right to directly elect the entire legislature.

The Chinese government’s timetable for democratic reform in Hong Kong follows a decision by the Standing Committee of China’s Parliament, the National People’s Congress, to reject universal suffrage on the island in 2012, a timetable that opinion polls suggested is favored by a majority of the people of Hong Kong.

The earliest voters would be entitled to elect the chief executive by popular vote is now 2017. They must wait until 2020 before possibly having the opportunity to vote for the entire 60-seat Legislative Council.

Chinese officials also announced on Saturday that if universal suffrage is introduced in 2017, only candidates nominated by a committee that would probably resemble the current electoral college would be allowed on the ballot.

But government officials in Hong Kong and Beijing said the decision finally gave Hong Kong the certainty of a timetable for achieving universal suffrage.

“The timetable for universal suffrage has been set,” Mr. Tsang said. “Hong Kong is entering a most important chapter in its constitutional history.

“We should try to apply fresh thinking to secure implementation of universal suffrage for the chief executive first in 2017, to be followed by that for the Legislative Council in 2020. We must treasure this hard-earned opportunity.”

The ruling of the Standing Committee only states that direct elections “may be implemented” beginning in 2017.

It requires the existing system to remain in place unless Hong Kong’s legislature can agree by a two-thirds majority on any changes.

New election laws would also have to be approved by the chief executive and the congress.

So, as others have noted, both in comments here and elsewhere, if anyone believes that Hong Kong will be a democracy within our lifetimes, either they are very young or perhaps they will buy this bridge in Brooklyn that I’m looking to sell.

They have completely stacked the odds against it by requiring approval from LegCo, a group made up of appointed people preoccupied with maintaining the status quo. There is no guarantee that votes for democracy that do not exist in LegCo today will exist 5 or 10 or 30 years in the future. And even if something resembling democracy arrives, the deck will be stacked because candidacy for office will not be open to anyone who wishes to run, merely those who profess their loyalty to Beijing.

So that’s it. It’s over. Stick a fork in it, it’s done. Democracy in Hong Kong – died before birth.

Here’s what it reminds me of. Several years ago, my company decided to embark upon a “business re-organization” project. They brought in an expensive consulting company. Internally, the project was run by, who else?, management. People who had a vested interested in keeping things as they were. A year later, millions of dollars spent, the re-org was announced. The same people kept the same jobs – they were merely given new titles.

Three cheers for stability!

Hongkie Town
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